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A prediction is the smallest bet in the fantasy section: one statement about a match, answered yes or no, with a multiplier on each answer. There is no team to build, which makes it feel simple. It is really a pricing question, and the skill lies in knowing when the price is wrong. That is not often.
What a market looks like
On 13 October 2026 a T20 international between Pakistan and Sri Lanka carried these three markets. Each answer shows a percentage and a multiplier.
| Statement | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Three or more wickets for any one player | 59.8% · 1.63x | 40.2% · 2.43x |
| Twelve or more fours by Sri Lanka | 73.5% · 1.33x | 26.5% · 3.69x |
| Eight or more sixes by Pakistan | 63.4% · 1.54x | 36.6% · 2.67x |
A winning stake is paid back times the multiplier, stake included, so ₹100 on a 2.43x side comes back as ₹243. Every market has a lock time, shown as a countdown. After it the market is closed and the result stays pending until the match settles it. Markets can be filtered by Trending, Cricket, Football and All, and a switch changes whether the numbers are displayed as odds or as a price.
Step one: find the break-even rate
Divide 1 by the multiplier. The answer is how often that side has to win for you to come out level.
| Multiplier | Break-even rate | In words |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33x | 75.2% | Must win more than three times in four |
| 1.63x | 61.3% | Must win about five times in eight |
| 2.43x | 41.2% | Must win a little over twice in five |
| 3.69x | 27.1% | Must win more than once in four |
Step two: see the margin
Compare each break-even rate with the percentage shown beside it. The 1.63x side is displayed at 59.8% but needs 61.3%. The 3.69x side is displayed at 26.5% but needs 27.1%. In all three markets the multiplier works out at about 0.98 divided by the displayed percentage. Put plainly: if the displayed percentage is exactly right, either side returns about 98 paise for each rupee staked, and the other two paise are the cost of playing.
That is our reading of three markets on one day, not a published rule, but the lesson is general. You are not paid for being right as often as the market expects. You are paid only when you are right more often than the price implies.
Step three: make your own estimate first
- Cover the percentages and write down your own figure for yes.
- Base it on counts, not feeling: how often has this happened in recent matches between comparable sides on comparable grounds?
- Adjust for today: the pitch, the boundary size, who bats first, who is missing.
- Compare your figure with the break-even rate. Play only if it beats the rate by a clear margin. Five percentage points is a sensible minimum, because your estimate is rough.
A worked example
Take the sixes market: eight or more by Pakistan, Yes at 1.54x. Break-even is 1 ÷ 1.54 = 64.9%. Suppose you look up the side’s last ten T20 innings and find eight or more sixes in six of them, which is 60%. Your figure is below the break-even rate, so Yes is not a bet.
What about No at 2.67x? It needs 37.5%, and your count says 40%. That is a gap of 2.5 points on a sample of ten innings, far too thin to act on. The right decision is to pass on both sides. Most markets end that way, and passing is the result of doing the work properly, not a failure to find a bet.
Traps
- Large multipliers look like value. A 3.69x side at a fair price still loses nearly three times in four.
- Low multipliers look safe. A fairly priced 1.33x side loses one time in four, and each loss wipes out three wins.
- Several predictions on one match are one opinion. If the pitch turns out slow, the fours, the sixes and the total all go the same way.
- The toss changes things. If a market is still open after it, redo the estimate.
Staking
Use the same flat stake for every prediction, small enough that ten losses in a row would not end your week, and never raise it to recover. The bankroll page turns that into rupees. For the full-team version of the same thinking, see fantasy cricket strategy. Terms such as lock time and multiplier are in the glossary.
